When discussing what drives human action, we often look to the past first. We assume that past wounds, deficiencies, or unfulfilled needs push people from behind. But is human drive truly governed only by the past pushing us forward? Perhaps what pulls an individual, a team, or a community most powerfully is an unseen future—a vision of the tomorrow that lies ahead.
Among the various theories on human motivation, one stands out for viewing human beings as active, cognitive, and rational decision-makers: Expectancy Theory, formulated by psychologist Victor Vroom (1964). According to this framework, people are not passive creatures merely reacting to external stimuli. Instead, they anticipate future outcomes, weigh potential consequences, and decide right here and now how deeply they will commit.
If deficit is a push factor from behind, expectancy is a pull factor leading us from ahead. If the essence of leadership lies in eliciting commitment in the present moment, its starting point is shaping the vision of tomorrow within people's hearts—that is, managing their expectancies.
1. The Relationship Between Expectancy and Reality
Expectancy is not mere wishful thinking. It governs a person’s present, pre-manifests realities that are not yet visible, and serves as the baseline for evaluating whether current outcomes are good or bad.
A person’s present state is influenced far more by their anticipated future than by their past. Memory researchers Berntsen and Bohn (2010) demonstrated that the cognitive processes of remembering the past and forecasting the future (episodic future thinking) differ fundamentally. While recalling past events is bound to fixed facts, imagining the future offers far greater freedom and evokes significantly stronger emotional responses.
People tend to project their futures more vividly—whether brightly or darkly—and these envisioned tomorrows directly govern their current emotions and level of commitment. In short, the present state of an individual or an organization is ruled not by yesterday's history, but by tomorrow's picture.
Scripture echoes this deep insight. The prophet Isaiah describes the despair of the Israelites when they lost all expectation for the future:
"You said, ‘Let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we die!’" (Isaiah 22:13)
The moment people believe there is no tomorrow, today devolves into hedonism and apathy. The same holds true in any team or community. A team member who has lost hope for improvement or given up expectation for the next milestone may physically remain present, but they have already lost the internal stamina to endure today. One of a leader’s most fundamental responsibilities is to redraw this vision of tomorrow.
2) A Force That Pre-Manifests Unseen Reality
Expectancy is also a generative force that brings unmanifested realities into existence. Almost everything surrounding us today began as a fervent expectation in someone's mind before taking physical form. The Author of Hebrews captures this truth in spiritual language:
"Now faith is confidence in what we hope for and assurance about what we do not see." (Hebrews 11:1)
What we hope for—our expectancy—eventually materializes into the reality before our eyes. When launching a new endeavor from scratch, what sustains the team through humble beginnings is not their current scarcity, but their shared expectation of what will be built. Conversely, James points out, "You do not have because you do not ask" (James 4:2). Where expectancy is absent, outcomes fail to materialize. Expectancy is a necessary precondition for any achievement.
3) A Baseline for Evaluating Current Reality
Expectancy functions as the subjective baseline by which we evaluate outcomes. Given the same result, a person's satisfaction varies wildly depending on their prior expectations (Oliver, 1980).
The Parable of the Workers in the Vineyard illustrates this mechanism vividly (Matthew 20:10–12). The workers hired early in the morning received one denarius, exactly as promised. Yet, they grumbled bitterly against the landowner. Seeing those hired last receive the same wage created a new, arbitrary expectation: "We should receive more."
Much of human conflict stems not from objective results themselves, but from the gap between prior expectations and actual outcomes. Therefore, the expectations a leader sets and communicates in advance dictate how the same outcome will be perceived.
2. Leadership and Expectancy Management: Vroom’s Model
Victor Vroom posited that the motivational force driving a person is determined by the multiplicative interaction of three cognitive variables (Vroom, 1964): Expectancy, Instrumentality, and Valence.
1) Expectancy (E to P): Illuminating Possibility
Expectancy is the perceived probability that one's effort will lead to successful performance (E to P). People rarely exert effort toward goals that feel impossible.
When Jesus remarked that it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich person to enter the kingdom of God, His disciples grew disheartened, asking, "Who then can be saved?" (Luke 18:26). When possibility feels like zero, people abandon effort. Jesus immediately restored their expectancy by declaring:
"What is impossible with man is possible with God." (Luke 18:27)
He then reinforced this in the very next chapter by demonstrating the transformational salvation of Zacchaeus, a wealthy chief tax collector (Luke 19). By making an apparently impossible outcome visible, Jesus rekindled their expectancy.
Practical Leadership Strategies:
- Break Down Macro Goals: Deconstruct overwhelming objectives into manageable, actionable steps. A realistic goal for this week or month mobilizes effort far more effectively than an abstract, lofty slogan.
- Clarify the Roadmap: Transform vague plans into tangible roadmaps and visible milestones. Visualizing progress builds self-efficacy (Bandura, 1977)—the firm belief that "we can actually achieve this."
2) Instrumentality (P to O): Connecting Effort to Outcomes
Instrumentality is the trust that achieving a performance goal will reliably lead to an expected reward or outcome (P to O). Nothing drains human spirits faster than unrewarded, fruitless labor. When people invest time and energy without seeing meaningful results, burnout and cynicism set in.
Apostle Paul offered firm assurance to believers weary of seemingly fruitless toil:
"Therefore, my dear brothers and sisters, stand firm. Let nothing move you. Always give yourselves fully to the work of the Lord, because you know that your labor in the Lord is not in vain." (1 Corinthians 15:58)
A leader must serve as the bridge connecting effort to fruitfulness.
Practical Leadership Strategies:
- Make Fruits Visible: Actively highlight and celebrate the tangible changes resulting from the team's labor. Sharing concrete stories of growth and impact restores faith in instrumentality.
- Build Trustworthy Systems: Establish clear, consistent pathways where effort leads to performance, and performance predictably yields recognition, growth, and new opportunities. When assigning new roles, clearly outline how this labor will foster their long-term development.
3) Valence (V): Aligning Rewards with Individual Desires
Valence refers to the subjective value or attractiveness an individual places on an outcome (V). Even if expectancy (E to P) and instrumentality (P to O) are high, motivation will fail if the promised outcome is not something the individual genuinely cares about.
The prophet Isaiah highlights this disconnect:
"Why spend money on what is not bread, and your labor on what does not satisfy? Listen, listen to me, and eat what is good, and you will delight in the richest of fare." (Isaiah 55:2)
A reward that a leader deems valuable holds no power if it does not resonate with what the team member actually desires.
Practical Leadership Strategies:
- Understand Individual Needs: Discern what each team member truly seeks through their effort. One person may value belonging; another, career growth; another, autonomy; and another, leaving a meaningful legacy.
- Offer Tailored Value Propositions: Move away from standardized, one-size-fits-all rewards. By aligning recognition and opportunities with individual desires (Lawler, 1973), obligation transforms into genuine joy.
Conclusion
Leadership, at its core, is the art of painting a vivid, trustworthy picture of tomorrow within people's hearts. What determines today's commitment is not the burden of the past, but the promise of the future.
- Elevate Expectancy (E to P): Clarify goals and remove obstacles to cultivate the confidence that "we can do this."
- Solidify Instrumentality (P to O): Build transparent systems and visible feedback loops so team members know their labor is never in vain.
- Align Valence (V): Match rewards with individual desires so that effort becomes personally meaningful.
When these three dimensions align, people cease to be passive followers pushed by circumstance. They become active agents who transform their expectations of tomorrow into the dedicated commitments of today. To stand alongside them—painting the unseen future as if it were already visible—is perhaps the most vital task a leader can fulfill.
Notes
- Bandura, A. (1977). Self-efficacy: Toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. Psychological Review, 84(2), 191–215.
- Berntsen, D., & Bohn, A. (2010). Remembering and forecasting: The relation between autobiographical memory and episodic future thinking. Memory & Cognition, 38(3), 265–278.
- Lawler, E. E., III. (1973). Motivation in Work Organizations. Brooks/Cole Publishing.
- Oliver, R. L. (1980). A cognitive model of the antecedents and consequences of satisfaction decisions. Journal of Marketing Research, 17(4), 460–469.
- Vroom, V. H. (1964). Work and Motivation. John Wiley & Sons.